A Look at Tim Adleman

Image courtesy of minorleaguebaseball.com

On June 8th, RHP Timothy Adleman was picked by the Baltimore Orioles in the 24th round (718th overall), making him the first Georgetown Hoya to be selected in the MLB Amateur Player Draft since Matt Bouchard in 2007. The 6’5″, 210 pound junior was Georgetown’s most relied upon starter in 2010, leading the staff in starts (14) and innings pitched (83.1).

While his statistics were middling – Adleman posted a career 5.83 ERA over 52 games (48 starts) – there were some indicators that he might transition well to pro ball. Georgetown was generally overmatched against its opponents in the Big East, which is a favorable offensive league, and, despite his mediocre ERA, Adleman posted a solid 224/83 K/BB ratio.

Over his brief rookie stint with Baltimore’s short season Aberdeen Ironbirds, Adleman has pitched to a 3.57 ERA in 63 IP across 12 starts. He has struck out 58 batters over that span while walking 24 and posting a 1.48 ground-out to air-out ratio. His early success may lend some support to the idea that college pitchers with ground-ball tendencies are generally undervalued. Since ground-balls tend to go for hits more often than fly-balls, the limited range of college defenders hurts ground-ball pitchers much more than those who typically get outs in the air. Since ground-ball hits that defenders never touch don’t count as errors, this discrepancy is not reflected in ERA. When these pitchers are surrounded by superior defenders at the pro level, they tend to see their BABIP drop significantly.

It might not be technically correct to say that collegiate ground-ball pitchers are undervalued – scouts likely have an intuitive idea that certain pitchers will excel when given adequate defense – but it is likely the case that their success is more likely to translate, or even accelerate, to the professional level than that of their altitude-friendly compatriots. Thanks to area scout Chris Gale, Baltimore may have gotten round 6th to 10th round value out of a player who signed for slot in the 24th round.