The 2010 season has been a mixed bag for 23-year-old rookie Brian Matusz. The lefty out of San Diego, taken fourth overall in the 2008 amateur draft, breezed through the minors in less than a year, posting a combined 1.91 ERA over 19 starts in high-A Frederick and AA Bowie before making his Baltimore debut on August 4th. Matusz went on to make 8 big league starts, posting a 4.63 ERA, striking out nearly eight batters per nine innings and walking fewer than three. Entering the 2010 season, expectations in Baltimore were high for Matusz, who showed flashes of dominance toward the end of his first big league stint.
There were, however, subtle indicators that suggested enthusiasm be curbed. Scouts had warned that Matusz’ offspeed deliverings were so good that he might not face any real tests in the lower and middle levels of the minors. Being able to consistently fool the competition with his change-up and curve, Matusz might not learn how to set the pitches up with his fastball – a skill that would prove crucial in the big leagues.
Still, after such dominance in his minor league campaign and a brief stint in the majors that might actually have been better than it seemed (the debutant was saddled with an unfortunate .343 BABIP and racked up a 4.08 FIP, 4.23 xFIP, and 4.35 Defense Adjusted ERA), optimism was abundant despite a 50% PECOTA and ZiPS projection that saw Matusz posting an ERA in the upper 4s.
That projection is eerily similar to Matusz current production, a 4.97 ERA over 137.2 innings. Over 25 inconsistent starts, the lefty starter is striking out fewer batters (6.93 K/9) and walking more (3.40 BB/9) than he did in his short stint in 2009 (7.66 K/9 and 2.82 BB/9). What is perhaps more disconcerting is a noticeable regression in his fastball, which has gone from an average of 91.5 in 2009 to 90.0 in 2010. Matusz has also had trouble commanding the pitch.
Just as scouts had warned, when Matusz is not able to establish his fastball and use it to get ahead in the count, his secondary pitches become less effective. He’s still throwing the fastball about 60% of the time, the change-up 20% of the time, and the curve and slider about 10% of the time respectively, but he’s gone from throwing 62.2% of his pitches for strikes in 2009 to 58.4% in 2010, and hitters have gone from making contact on 78% of attempts to 83%. The lack of velocity and fastball command has clearly hurt Matusz.
Still, there are some positive signs. Matusz is getting more ground balls, fewer fly balls and fewer line drives. Despite the improvement, he has still been unlucky on batted balls, pitching to a .322 BABIP. Component ERAs paint Matusz’ season more favorably, as he has a Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) of 4.23.
This post comes on the heels of Matusz best start of the season – eight shutout innings against a good Texas team, with six strikeouts to one walk and just five hits allowed. It’s possible that the stress of his first full Major League season has caused Matusz some fatigue. However, despite the loss in velocity and inconsistent command, the 23-year-old is still pitching like a fringy middle of the rotation starter. With a recovery of velocity and continued experience, Matusz could still take the leap into top of the rotation status as soon as next year.
The Tenth Inning 