A Look at Baltimore’s Draft Signings

The August 16th midnight deadline for signing amateur draftees has come and gone. As expected, super-agent Scott Boras held out until the literal last minute – Orioles’ scouting director Joe Jordan says the deal was completed at 11:57 – before inking Baltimore’s first pick, high school shortstop Manny Machado. Machado, picked 3rd overall in June’s 2010 amateur draft, signed for a sizeable but not unreasonable bonus of $5.25 million. The two sides found themselves about $1.5 million apart as late as 11:45 on monday night, but Jordan and Orioles’ GM Andy Macphail wisely decided to wait Boras out. While Machado’s bonus is the second largest in franchise history, the deal is believed to be much closer to Baltimore’s stand pat offer than the figure for which Boras and Machado were asking.

Here’s a complete list of the Orioles’ final signings in the 2010 Amateur Draft, with signing dates and bonuses provided for those made public. Italicized picks did not sign, while bolded picks were signed for figures in significant excess of commissioner Bud Selig’s recommended slot bonuses.

1 (3) – Manny Machado, SS, Brito HS (FL) – 8/16 – $5.25 million
2 (N/A) – Baltimore conceded its second round pick to Atlanta by signing Type-A free agent Mike Gonzalez.
3 (85) – Daniel Klein, RHP, UCLA – agreed to terms 8/12 – $499,000
4 (118) – Trent Mummey, OF, Auburn – agreed to terms 6/18 – $252,000
5 (148) – Connor Narron, SS, C. B. Aycock HS (NC) – agreed to terms 8/4 – $650,000
6 (178) – Dixon Anderson, RHP, Cal – Did not sign
7 (208) – Matt Bywater, LHP, Pepperdine – agreed to terms 8/16 – $195,000
8 (238) – Wynston Sawyer, C, Scripps Ranch HS (CA) – agreed to terms 7/30 – $300,000
9 (268) – Parker Bridwell, RHP, Hereford HS (TX)- agreed to terms 8/4 – $625,000
10 (298) – Clayton Schrader, RHP, San Jacinto JC – agreed to terms 7/29 – $300,000
11 (328) – Alexander Gonzalez, RHP, Boca Raton HS (FL) – Did not sign
12 (358) – Riley Hornback, C, San Jacinto JC agreed to terms 6/15
13 (388) – Jeremy Nowak, OF, Mt. Olive Coll. – agreed to terms 6/11
14 (418) – Michael Mosby, 3B, Wabash Valley Coll. – agreed to terms 6/11
15 (448) – Joe Oliveira, C, Pacific – agreed to terms 6/11
16 (478) – Brandon King, OF, Fresno CC – Did not sign
17 (508) – David Richardson, LF, Hillsborough CC agreed to terms 6/15
18 (538) – Sebastian Vader, RHP, San Marcos HS (CA) agreed to terms 7/1
19 (568) – Kenneth Wise, RHP, Santa Fe CC – agreed to terms 8/16
20 (598) – Matt Drummond, LHP, UCLA – agreed to terms 7/7
21 (628) – Scott Copeland, RHP, Southern Miss – agreed to terms 6/11
22 (658) – Tanner Murphy, C, Mountain Ridge HS (AZ) agreed to terms 6/15
23 (688) – Christopher Clinton, OF, Eckerd Coll. agreed to terms 6/15
24 (718) – Timothy Adleman, RHP, Georgetown – agreed to terms 6/11
25 (748) – Vincent Zazueta, SS, Arizona Western Coll. – agreed to terms 6/11
26 (778) – Austin Goolsby, C, Embry-Riddle Univ. – agreed to terms 6/11
27 (808) – Austin Urban, RHP, Richland HS (PA) – Did not sign
28 (838) – Jaime Esquivel, RHP, South Houston HS (TX) – agreed to terms 8/15 – $225,000
29 (868) – Cameron Roth, LHP, UNC Wilmington – agreed to terms 6/20
30 (898) – Michael Rooney, SS, UNC Wilmington – agreed to terms 6/11
31 (928) – Adam Gaylord, 3B, Stanford – agreed to terms 6/11
32 (958) – Joe Robinson, RHP, College of Southern Nevada – Did not sign
33 (988) – Steven Mazur, RHP, Notre Dame – agreed to terms 6/11
34 (1018) – Samuel Starr, SS, University of British Columbia – agreed to terms 6/11
35 (1048) – Joseph Donaldson, IF, Southeastern – agreed to terms 6/11
36 (1078) – Brad Decater, SS, Cal State Northridge – agreed to terms 6/11
37 (1108) – Austin Knight, 2B, Palm Beach CC agreed to terms 6/15
38 (1138) – Jeremy Shelby, CF, Grambling St. – agreed to terms 6/11
39 (1168) – Travis Strong, RHP agreed to terms 6/15
40 (1198) – Joe Velleggia, C, Old Dominion agreed to terms 6/17 – $20,000
41 (1228) – David Blanchard, SS, Cherokee County HS (AL) – Did not sign
42 (1258) – Jacob Petit, RHP, Western Oregon St. – agreed to terms 6/11
43 (1288) – Blair Dunlap, OF, UCLA – agreed to terms 7/7
44 (1318) – Preston Hale, OF, North Florida – agreed to terms 6/11
45 (1348) – Nathan Williams, RHP, Scripps Ranch HS (CA) – Did not sign
46 (1378) – Daniel Torres, C, Countryside HS (FL) – Did not sign
47 (1408) – Cody Young, OF, Anderson University – agreed to terms 6/11
48 (1438) – Alex Schmarzo, RHP, St. Mary’s – agreed to terms 8/15
49 (1468) – Hayden Jordan, RHP, Whitewater HS (GA) – Did not sign
50 (1498) – Philip Walby, RHP, Scripps Ranch HS (CA) – Did not sign

Baltimore was successful in signing 39 of its 48 picks (Hayden Jordan and Philip Walby were never expected to sign). The sum total of the bonuses that have been made available comes to $8.316 MM. Alex Schmarzo’s bonus has not been made available but is likely in the $100,000 range. 19th round pick Kenny Wise is also believed to have signed an over-slot bonus. Factoring in the remaining slot signings, this draft cost about $9 MM, very close to the estimated $8.8 MM the club spent on its 2009 draft and, again, well above the average draft total (about $6.5 MM in 2010 according to Baseball America’s Jim Callis).

Baltimore tied up roughly 58 percent of its draft budget in top pick Manny Machado, but still managed to complete at least 7 other over-slot deals, with 6 total contracts worth $300,000 or more.

The ones who got away

While Baltimore’s draft spending was strong, there were a handful of promising young players with demands that proved too lofty for the Orioles’ assessment. Here are the best players who did not sign:

Dixon Anderson, RHP, Cal – The 7th round pick was a draft-eligible sophomore, so he had plenty of leverage in negotiations. The 6’5″, 225-pound right-hander had a disappointing season, going 5-4 with a 5.17 ERA for the Golden Bears. Anderson will return to Cal State, where he will attempt to return to form and re-enter the draft in 2011. If he puts it together, Anderson could go in the first two rounds next season.

Austin Urban, RHP, Richland HS (PA) – Baltimore’s 19th round pick, Austin Urban, was an intriguing potential over-slot who ultimately slipped away. The somewhat undersized righty (6’1″, 185) impressed Baltimore scouts by touching the mid-90s in pre-draft workouts. Reports indicated that Urban was willing to sign for the right price, but the two sides ended up several hundred thousand apart. Urban was likely a backup plan if Baltimore failed to sign 7th round pick Matthew Bywater. In the end, Bywater lowered his demands and signed on August 16th and Baltimore left their final offer on the table for Urban, who decided to go to Penn State instead.

Draft Talk: Baltimore Orioles

If early draft picks are the spoils of losing franchises, the Baltimore Orioles are once again reluctant victors.

On June 7th, Baltimore used the third overall pick in the First-Year Player Draft to select Florida high school shortstop Manny Machado. The tall, lanky infielder out of Miami Brito HS has drawn somewhat dubious comparisons to Alex Rodriguez. While Machado possesses excellent bat control and should hit for average, he is not likely to develop elite power.

Still, Machado was a ‘consensus’ top 3 pick in the 2010 draft class, with commentators as highly regarded as Keith Law asserting that he was the second best talent available (behind wunderkind Bryce Harper).

Time will tell how the young men in this month’s draft develop, but here is a rundown of the Orioles top draft picks.

First round selection (3rd overall): SS Manny Machado (Miami Brito HS)

As stated, Machado received very high praise from evaluators all around the country. He emerged as the consensus top prep positional talent midway through the season. While the ARod comparisons are a stretch – any toolsy, offensive-minded, Latin short stop out of Florida will inevitably be pegged with the label at some point – Machado is still a very special talent.

While I believe Machado has the upside to be an elite short stop in the major leagues, he comes with legitimate question marks. While Machado is an excellent hitter, he did not have the best bat of the prep class (that honor goes to 3B Nick Castellanos).

Much of Machado’s stock rests on his positional value. An above average bat at a premium position is incredibly valuable. While Machado has the arm and the actions to stick at shortstop, his size alone may facilitate a move to third base. As it stands he has average range, but there is quite a bit of room on that lanky frame to bulk up and fill out, which could slow him down too much.

And therein lies the quandary: if Machado fills out and reaches his power potential, he’ll likely slide over to a less valuable position. If he stays lean and quick enough to stick at short, he’ll likely only display average pop.

Machado profiles to have an adequate bat for either position, so he has still has a very good chance of being a valuable player. My only concern is that, while he vaulted into top-5 discussion due to his high ceiling, that ceiling requires an unlikely combination of proper development, excellent conditioning, and a fair amount of luck.

Regardless, Machado is an excellent prospect who has been injected into a team bereft of positional talent and devoid of a realistic solution at short for years. He is sure to become a top 3 prospect for the Orioles from the day he signs – which will likely be the August 15th deadline.

Second round selection: None

Due to the off-season signing of currently injured closer Mike Gonzalez, a ‘Type-A’ free agent, Baltimore sacrificed their second round pick in the First-Year Player Draft.

Third round selection: RHP Dan Klein (UCLA)

Klein was red-shirted in his sophomore season due to shoulder surgery. He came back for UCLA in his junior campaign as the club’s closer, experiencing quite a bit of success in this role.

Klein could be fast tracked to Baltimore’s bullpen by late 2011, but the Orioles seem intent on developing him as a starter, due mainly to his impressive 4-pitch repertoire featuring a sinking fastball that sits in the low 90s, a hard biting slider, an average, rolling curveball, and a developing changeup.

While Klein probably won’t be a strikeout machine, he will induce a good amount of ground balls and he flashes above average command of four pitches. Because Baltimore will have to ease Klein into a starter’s workload, his development will likely take longer than most polished college pitchers. Still, if he remains healthy, he could profile as a mid-rotation starter in a park that plays well for ground ball pitchers.

Fourth round selection: OF Trent Mummey (Auburn)

Mummey was the first Auburn player off the board, though many evaluators considered him the second best draft-eligible player on his own team. Auburn 1B Hunter Morris represented a big college bat, and most thought he would be picked in the first few rounds.

While Mummey’s power numbers were comparable to Morris’ on paper, don’t expect that to translate to wood. Mummey is small (5’10”, 185) and doesn’t use his lower body to generate power. He isn’t strong enough to fight off inside pitches and won’t square up as consistently with a wooden bat.

Regardless, Mummey is a very good pure hitter with advanced plate discipline and on-base skills. Many see him as a fourth outfielder, but I believe his polish and his ability to get on base could land Mummey a job as a starting center fielder and potential leadoff hitter. There is some potential for gap-to-gap power as well, but there are legitimate questions as to how he’ll adjust to hitting with a wooden bat against higher levels of pitching. I see his ceiling as a sort of Brian Roberts-lite type of bat in center field. He’ll be one to follow.

Fifth round selection: IF Connor Narron (Aycock HS, NC)

Connor Narron represented a somewhat risky overslot pick for BAL Director of Scouting Joe Jordan. He has a verbal commitment to North Carolina, but recent quotes from Jordan indicate that the organization feels confident they can sign him.

Connor is the son of ex-big leaguer Jerry Narron. The switch hitter is a fluid defender with a strong and accurate arm, but will likely settle in at third base. He has the tools to be an above average defender at the hot corner.

Narron raised some eyebrows after ‘only’ hitting .317 in his senior campaign. He walked nearly twice a game, though, and was pretty clearly being pitched around. Still, the relatively low average for a highly drafted high schooler is a bit of a red flag. It would not surprise me to see Narron develop into a three true outcome hitter down the line. That’s not necessarily a bad thing if he can walk and hit for power enough to offset a mediocre batting average.

Narron comes with a considerable amount of upside and is worth a gamble, but he’ll certainly require well over slot money to keep him away from UNC.

Randy Johnson: 300 Game Winner

Congrats to the Big Unit. Some semi-random thoughts:

I think Johnson gets overlooked at times when it comes to the discussion of the greatest pitchers of all time. He’s certainly one of them.

Randy Johnson leads all 300 win pitchers (in fact, all pitchers) with a 10.7 K/9 Ratio and is second on the list in K/BB rate with 3.26 (Greg Maddux is first with 3.37). The next closest pitcher on the list is dead-ball era pitcher Christy Mathewson with 2.96. His ERA+ is 136, good for 6th on the list. Among 300 game winners, only Nolan Ryan allowed fewer hits per 9 innings than Johnson. Only Lefty Grove (13.134) and Christy Mathewson (12.815) threw fewer innings pitched per win than Johnson (13.657).

As an aside about strikeouts and K/BB ratio: Strikeouts have steadily increased since the mid 20s, while BB rates have remained relatively constant (3.2 in 1925 vs. 3.4 in 2008). K/BB rate only became a truly important stat in the 1950s when, for the first time since the dead-ball era, pitchers began to strike out more hitters than they walked. The gap has only widened since. In 2008, pitchers struck out hitters at roughly twice the rate they dealt walks (6.8 to 3.4).

There has been a lot of talk in the media that Johnson is likely to be the last 300 game winner the baseball world will ever see. I find that pretty suspect.

People were saying this in the 90s all the time, and the oughts have seen an impressive 4 pitchers reach the mark. Randy Johnson accumulated 124 of his 300 wins from 2000-2009 despite missing half of 2003 and two thirds of 2007 with injuries. Despite being 36-45 years old. He accumulated all but 10 of his remaining 176 victories in the 90s when bullpen specialization was taking hold. He averaged 14.88 innings pitched per win in the oughts, which is right in line with most 300 game winners.

It is often noted that Randy Johnson did not accumulate 10 or more wins in a season until he was 26. This leads to the idea, “just think how many wins he could have amassed if he broke out earlier in his career!” What should be noted, however, is that most 300 game winners don’t break out early in their career. There are plenty of pitchers who racked up 100, 150, even 200 wins before the age of 30 and never got to 300. Johnson, on the other hand, won only 68 games prior to age 30 vs. 232 games after. Far more important than being good early is being good late.

As I see it, for a pitcher to reach 300 wins in the modern era, he more or less has to accomplish two things:

1. Experience a “second peak,” as it were, that is about as good or better than his first peak.

Johnson, for example, was very good from age 29 to 33, but was even better from age 35 to 38. (He basically experienced a 10 year peak that got better with age)

2. Be good enough, long enough, to rack up those last precious wins.

Johnson hasn’t been a truly dominant pitcher since 2004, when he posted a 2.60 ERA in 245.2 IP for the Diamondbacks. But, he’s been a slightly better than league average pitcher for 729.1 IP between ages 41-45, notching his last 54 wins and counting over that time frame. A pitcher who can survive into his mid-40s with relatively good health is a rare commodity, and, as far as 300 wins goes, it makes all the difference. Had Johnson retired after age 40, he would have put together a Hall of Fame career with eye-popping numbers. But he would have been a 246 game winner.

Did the fact that Johnson didn’t accumulate his first 10 win season, or throw 200 innings in one season, until he was 26 actually help his chances of getting to 300? Does the lack of heavy work on a young arm at the highest level of competition improve its chances of staying strong into its latter years? That’s probably too simplistic, and these things should probably be evaluated on a case to case basis. There might be some truth to the idea, since many of the 300 game winners followed a similar path. I don’t really know. It’s an interesting question.

I’m fairly confident, however, that there will be another 300 game winner. It likely won’t be someone who is on or over the pace right now, but someone who stays inexplicably good very late into his career.

2009 MLB Draft Preview

With the 2009 MLB Amateur Player Draft a week away (June 9th rounds 1-5), I thought I’d chime in with my personal top 10. This list was compiled by a combination of statistical analysis, video scouting and, largely, consensus draft reports from organizations and scouts who do their jobs much better than I. It should be noted that, while I have seen video of all of the names in my top 10, I have not seen any of these players live, nor do I claim to be an expert scout. It should also be noted that this is not a mock draft, or a prediction of the real draft day order, but a personal list of top 10 picks. These things are just fun. Here it goes:

1.    Stephen Strasburg, RHP, San Diego St.

This one is a no-brainer. Stephen Strasburg is not only the best pitcher in the 2009 draft, he may be the best pitching prospect of any draft. Ever. The 6′ 5″ 220 pound right-hander sits in the upper 90s with his fastball and regularly cranks it up to triple digits. His secondary pitches are good enough compliments to give him the ceiling of an ace. He has some work to do with his command in the zone and his slider and changeup can be a bit inconsistent, but he’s about as good as they come. Great pitchability/poise etc. He’s the real deal.
2.    Dustin Ackley, 1B/OF, UNC

Dustin Ackley is probably the best pure hitter in the draft. It is questionable whether he’ll be able to hold down a spot in the outfield, where his bat plays much better. He’s athletic enough to play anywhere in the outfield, but his arm strength is not what it once was after having Tommy John surgery. If he is limited to first his value decreases significantly. His skill-set reminds me of Nick Markakis – very good bat control, good pitch recognition, patient approach, good speed and baserunning, some pop but not monster power. I see him settling into somewhere between a .280/.350/.450 and  .300/.380/.500 player.
3.    Tyler Matzek, LHP, Capastrano HS (CA)

Lefty Tyler Matzek is the best high school pitcher in the draft. His fastball sits 90-92 with average movement, and he may add some velocity as his frame fills out. He has good leg strength and a good, lean build. Incredibly polished for a high school pitcher, Matzek brings three average to above average pitches to the table – fastball, slider, curve – with a developing change. He has drawn many comparisons to Brian Matusz, the college lefty picked 4th overall by the Baltimore Orioles in 2008, who in turn has been compared to Cole Hammels. High school pitchers can be risky picks, but this one is very safe.
4.    Aaron Crow, RHP, Fort Worth (Indy)

Originally drafted last year as the 9th overall pick, Crow couldn’t come to an agreement with the Washington Nationals. He opted to play indy league ball and re-enter the draft this year. Crow mixes a hard, sinking fastball that sits in the low to mid nineties with a plus slider that is a legitimate out pitch. While pitching for scouts this year with the Fort Worth Cats his command was a bit off – he tended to nibble rather than attack hitters in the zone like he did in college – but this was offset by the development of his changeup which now looks like a major league average pitch. There are some concerns about his mechanics leading to injuries, which shouldn’t be understated. He’s polished and very close to being ML ready.

5.    Grant Green, SS, USC

Grant Green is an interesting case. Coming into the 2009 season he was a consensus top 5 pick, arguably the best college position player in the draft. He had previously shown plus power for a shortstop, proving he could handle the wooden bat in the Cape Cod League. For one reason or another, his power seems to have disappeared this season. Adding to the confusion are conflicting reports about his defense. While some say he lacks range and will outgrow the position, others (specifically Jim Callis) have come out saying that Green’s defense is a plus. I think he’ll be able to handle the position and become an average defensive shortstop. He should hit for average and show solid plate discipline, but much of his value rests on the development of his power. Plus power at a premium position is extremely valuable and that alone, despite the legitimate risk that the power never shows, is why I have Green at 1:5.
6.    Alex White, RHP, UNC

Alex White is another guy whose stock has taken a hit because of some struggles this season. Like Green, I haven’t soured too much on Alex White. He has four pitches – fastball, slider, curveball and changeup – though the latter two need some work. His above average fastball sits in the low 90’s with very good movement and hard sinking action. When he’s on he’ll get a lot of ground balls, though he tends to elevate the fastball a bit too much. His slider is a plus pitch that sits in the low to mid 80’s. His mechanics are a little inconsistent which sometimes leads to command issues. I think this can be corrected. When he’s commanding the fastball he can be dominant and he has the potential to be a solid number 2.

7.    Tanner Scheppers, RHP, St. Paul (Indy)

This is assuming a clean bill of health. Tanner Scheppers has arguably the second best stuff in the draft. He fell to the Pirates in the second round of last years drafts after being shut down due to a shoulder injury and chose to re-enter the draft in 2009. He’s had less than a month to perform for Scouts this year and has impressed so far. He is throwing hard with little effort and good movement on his pitches. He has a plus fastball that sits in the mid 90s and touches 98, complimented by a power curve that has potential to be an above average pitch. He has a changeup but doesn’t throw it much. The shoulder concerns are legitimate and a thorough medical evaluation would be necessary to know how much of a risk he poses, but there is definite risk. He would be a steal if he falls to the second half of the first round, but I think some team will take a chance on him in the 10-15 range, possibly earlier.
8.   Shelby Miller, RHP, Brownwood HS (TX)

This classic Texas power arm has absolutely electric stuff. A high school pitcher whose fastball sits 93-94 and can touch 96-98 is sure to turn heads by that merit alone, but Miller also mixes in a big curve that shows flashes of being a plus pitch. He has a tall, lean, projectable body that scouts go ga-ga over. He could end up pitching in the mid to upper 90s consistently. Some weaknesses: his control/command is not great, though he’s got plenty of time to refine. His breaking ball can be inconsistent and he’ll need to develop a third pitch to be successful as a big league starter. With two potentially plus pitches and a projectable body he’s sure to go early in the draft.
9.   Zack Wheeler, RHP, East Paulding HS (GA)

Zack Wheeler profiles quite similarly to Texas HS RHP Shelby Miller, and as a result they are often lumped together. Wheeler has a live arm, but not quite as powerful as Miller’s. His fastball sits in the low 90s, touching 95 on occassion, with good, hard sink. He also throws a strong curveball that could be an above average pitch, but he is inconsistent with it. His command/control comes and goes, but when he’s on he is dominant. When his command escapes him he stays poised on the mound and shows a propensity for getting out of jams. He has a developing changeup but it’s not much of a pitch at this point. He has done much to improve his draft status this year.
10.    Kyle Gibson, RHP, Univ. of Missouri

Gibson is this year’s college “safe pick.” His fastball won’t blow anyone away, but it sits in the low 90s with pretty good sink. He adds to this a hard slider and a plus changeup that compliments his fastball well. He commands all three pitches with precision and has great poise and pitchability. He has complained of forearm soreness this season and there are some concerns that his arm action could lead to an injury down the line. If he stays healthy he’s a good bet to be a solid, middle of the rotation starter.

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What should immediately jump out is the pitcher-heavy nature of the top talent in this draft. After Strasburg and Ackley, the talent level drops off noticeably. I would have felt somewhat comfortable switching up most of the guys in the 3-7 range, and picks 8-10 aren’t far behind.

I’ll have more draft coverage, info and analysis in the week to come.

Wieters to Get Call Friday; More Help on the Way

The cavalry is coming.

That was Baltimore Orioles manager Dave Trembley’s message to the fans shortly before the start of the 2009 season. He was referring specifically to the core of starting pitching in the higher levels of the Orioles minor league system, but generally to the influx of young talent waiting in the wings.

This Friday, Orioles fans will get a look at the best of the bunch.

Orioles President of Baseball Operations Andy MacPhail announced in-game on Tuesday that catcher Matt Wieters, Baseball America’s highest ranked 2009 prospect, will make his debut at Camden Yards on Friday against the Detroit Tigers.

“It’s time,” MacPhail stated dryly. “He has done what he needed to do at that level.”

Wieters is at the top of what is commonly referred to as the Orioles ‘big four.’ Joining the switch-hitting phenom in this distinctive category are pitchers Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta, all of whom are quickly moving through the Baltimore system and should make their debuts before long.

Wieters, a 6’5”, 230-pound catcher who hits for power and average from both sides of the plate, may be the most hyped prospect in Orioles history. The fifth overall pick of the 2007 draft, Wieters put up one of the best statistical seasons in minor league history last year when he hit a combined  .355/.454/.600 between A+ Frederick and AA Bowie. The then-22-year-old slugged a total of 27 home runs in 437 at-bats and accumulated more walks (82) than strikeouts (76).

Despite starting off slowly for AAA Norfolk in 2009, the prized prospect kicked it into gear in the month of May, raising his average to .305 and his OPS to .890. He will immediately assume the role of starting catcher, pushing veteran Gregg Zaun to the bench.

“Matt Wieters isn’t going to do a lot of sitting,” MacPhail assured fans. “He’s here to be the catcher.”

The Cavalry, it seems, has begun to arrive.

Arms on the Farm:

The Baltimore Orioles’ top 3 starting pitching prospects have gotten off to hot starts in 2009. If all goes according to plan, they will soon join or replace some of the young arms who have already gotten the call up in 2009, including Brad Bergesen, Jason Berken and David Hernandez. Here’s how they’ve fared so far:

Chris Tillman (AAA Norfolk): 5-0 record, 2.13 ERA in 38.0 IP

Jake Arrieta (AA Bowie): 4-2 record, 2.97 ERA, 51 K in 39.1 IP

Brian Matusz (A+ Frederick): 3-2 record, 2.68 ERA, 65 K in 53.2 IP

The Bowie Grass is Always Greener

The man she had was kind and clean
And well enough for every day,
But, oh, dear friends, you should have seen
The one that got away!
-Dorothy Parker

Baseball fans, not unlike most men and women, have a propensity for coveting what they do not have. We tend to downplay positive attributes and exaggerate flaws in the ones we spend our days with while romanticizing strangers for thrill of the unknown. Lucky for us, baseball fandom does not chastise adulteration, and we are free to make our sullied desires known loud and proud.

It should, then, come as no surprise that, a mere 50 at-bats into outfielder Felix Pie’s 2009 season, we are beginning to hear cries for change. Baltimore Orioles fans were told that Pie would be a work in progress who would need steady at-bats over the course of a season to truly show his potential, yet after one month of play many fans are calling for his replacement. There is a young man toiling away at AAA, some say, who deserves the call. His name? Lou Montanez.

Montanez hit his way onto the orioles radar last year when he won the Eastern League Triple Crown award, batting .335/.385/.601 with 26 homeruns and 97 RBI for AA Bowie. He was awarded a September call-up and, for the most part, held his own. The question is, just how good was Montanez’ 2008 season and what could be reasonably expected of him as a Major Leaguer?

According to Dan Symborski’s Major League Equivalencies, Montanez’ 2008 numbers in AA Bowie would have translated roughly to a .288/.326/.486 line in Baltimore with about 20 home runs. Those aren’t eye-popping numbers, but an .812 OPS would justify a starting role in left field.

The problem is, these were not typical numbers for Montanez, who has a career .283/.350/.431 line in 3,718 minor league at-bats. Is it possible that Montanez is simply a late-bloomer? It’s possible, but not incredibly likely. One would be wise to discount for a pretty substantial regression to the mean.

There’s another problem. Lou was aided by a .366 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) despite a pretty poor 12 percent line drive percentage (LD%). When only 12 percent of a hitters’ balls in play are line drives and 48 percent are hit on the ground, it’s safe to say that he was probably aided by a good amount of luck to notch a .335 batting average. This is an unsustainable trend.

With a more reasonable BABIP of .300, which corresponds much better to a 12 percent LD%, Montanez would see his ML line drop down to around .255/.293/.451, which would make him essentially an average Major League hitter and a below average starting left fielder. So, to recap, in Montanez’ career minor league year he was probably a fringe ML starter who would have sat around a .745 OPS. As if to affirm these translations, Montanez posted a .758 OPS in his 116 at-bats with Baltimore in September.

This brings us back to Pie. As I see it, there are two main differences between Montanez and Pie:

1.    Felix Pie is a much better defender.
2.    Felix Pie is three years younger.

Chone, Oliver and ZiPS, three respected offensive projection systems, have Montanez somewhere between a 749 and 787 OPS for the 2009 season. By these estimations he would be about league average offensively.

In the event that Felix Pie posted numbers similar to Adam Jones in 2008, about a .710-.720 OPS, he’d be about 7 runs below average with the bat. Montanez’ offense would be just short of a win better, with 10 runs roughly equaling the value of an added win. Both he and Pie would lose positional value in Left, about 9 or 10 runs.

Last year, Montanez was 3.5 runs below average in just 216 innings of defensive work. Project that out to a full season of about 1200 innings and he’d end up about 19.4 runs below average with the glove. Now, that’s approaching Adam Dunn territory, and I’d bet that over the course of a season he would improve defensively. I’ll be conservative and say he’d be about 10 runs below average.

There have been suggestions that Felix Pie could be a Carl Crawford-type elite defensive left fielder (some 20 runs above average). For his limited career, Felix Pie has been about 4.5 runs above average with the glove in 635 innings of defensive work. Projected over a full season, he’d be about 9 runs above average with the glove. I think over the course of a whole season there’s a good chance he would end up being better than that, but, again, let’s be conservative and say he’d be about a win (10 runs) above average with the glove.

So, by conservative estimates, Luis Montanez projects to be about average offensively, about a win below average defensively, and he’d lose about a win in positional value. That would make him about 2 wins below average. This would be about replacement level.

Felix Pie, in this hypothetical scenario, would be about -7 runs offensively and +10 runs defensively. He’d lose about a win for positional value as well, and end up 7 runs below average, or just over a win above replacement level.

By my estimates, Pie’s defensive aptitude far outweighs Montanez’ more advanced bat, to the tune of an extra win. When you consider that Felix Pie is only 24 years old and will likely improve over the next few years, while Montanez is 27 and right around the age when players see a peak in performance, it starts to look like a no brainer that Pie has more long-term value.

But, of course, the grass is always greener…

An Introduction

TBD